Let me be honest with you—when I first started betting on NBA games, I thought picking winners straight up with the moneyline was the smarter move. I mean, why complicate things with point spreads when you can just bet on who wins? But after a few painful losses where my team won but didn’t cover, I realized there’s a lot more nuance to this than I’d assumed. It’s a bit like that Nintendo Switch 2 Welcome Tour experience, where you’re tasked with finding every tiny component—every stamp, every hidden kiosk, every audio jack—before you can move forward. At first, it seems straightforward, but as you delve deeper, you realize how much detail matters. Betting strategies are the same: what looks simple on the surface requires real familiarity with the inner workings.
Moneyline betting, for those unfamiliar, is straightforward: you pick the team you think will win the game outright, no matter the margin. The odds reflect the perceived strength of each team. For example, if the Lakers are facing the Warriors and the Lakers are heavy favorites, you might see moneyline odds like -180 for the Lakers and +150 for the Warriors. That means you’d need to bet $180 to win $100 on the Lakers, while a $100 bet on the underdog Warriors would net you $150 if they pull off the upset. On the surface, it seems like the easier path—just pick the winner and move on. But here’s the catch: favorites win less often than you’d think, especially in a league as unpredictable as the NBA. Last season, favorites priced at -200 or higher won roughly 68% of the time, which sounds decent until you realize that over time, the vig (the house’s cut) eats into your profits if you’re consistently laying heavy odds. I’ve fallen into that trap myself—backing a team like the Bucks at -250, only to see them lose to a scrappy underdog, and suddenly that “safe” bet feels anything but.
Point spread betting, by contrast, levels the playing field by introducing a handicap. If the Celtics are favored by 7.5 points over the Knicks, they need to win by 8 or more for a bet on them to pay out. If you take the Knicks, they can lose by 7 or fewer points (or win outright), and you still cash your ticket. This adds a layer of strategy that’s reminiscent of hunting for every last stamp in the Switch 2’s circuit board—it forces you to look beyond the obvious. You’re not just asking, “Who will win?” but “By how much?” And that’s where things get interesting. In my experience, spread betting rewards deep research—things like injury reports, pace of play, and even coaching tendencies. For instance, teams on the second night of a back-to-back have covered the spread only about 48% of the time over the past five seasons, which is a stat I’ve used to my advantage more than once.
Now, which approach wins more games? Well, if we’re talking pure volume, point spread bets tend to offer better value for seasoned bettors. Why? Because the margin for error is built into the line, and if you can spot inefficiencies—say, a public overreaction to a star player’s injury—you can capitalize. Moneyline betting, on the other hand, often feels like you’re paying a premium for certainty that doesn’t always exist. I’ve tracked my own bets over the last two seasons, and while my moneyline picks hit about 55% of the time, my spread picks hover around 52%—but the payout structure meant I netted more profit with spreads. That’s not to say moneylines are useless. In fact, I still use them for underdog plays, especially in situations where an upset feels imminent. Take the 2023 playoffs: I grabbed the Heat at +240 on the moneyline in Game 2 against the Celtics, and when they pulled off the win, the payout was far sweeter than any spread bet would’ve offered.
But let’s not ignore the psychological side of this. Betting the moneyline can be less stressful—you’re rooting for a win, plain and simple. With spreads, I’ve had nights where I’m sweating out a last-second free throw that turns a cover into a loss. It’s tedious, much like searching for every hidden logo in that Switch 2 demo. Yet, that attention to detail is what separates casual bettors from consistent winners. If I had to pick one strategy for long-term success, I’d lean toward the point spread, but I’d mix in moneyline bets when the value is too good to pass up. After all, flexibility is key—just as Nintendo designed the Switch 2 to be versatile, a smart bettor adapts to the game in front of them. So, while neither strategy is a guaranteed winner, combining both with disciplined bankroll management is how you stay ahead. In the end, it’s not about which one “wins more”—it’s about which one helps you build a smarter, more sustainable approach to the game.